Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Cyclone Nilam: Joint Typhoon Warning Center Latest Bulletin











WTIO31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 81.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 81.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 11.7N 79.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 13.6N 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 15.4N 75.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
LLCC REMAINS ON A STEADY TRACK AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR IS CREATING
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM, AND IS ALSO LEADING TO
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOT). THE
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF INDIA AND WEAKENING IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING LAND INTERACTION. THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LLCC COULD
APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA IN LATER TAUS, BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ARABIAN SEA.
BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z,
312100Z AND 010300Z.//

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