Courtesy: Hindu
Businessline
Thiruvananthapuram, May 21: The south-west monsoon has missed its date of
onset over Andaman Sea, the first port of call in the Indian territorial
waters.
The normal
timeline for the onset here is May 15 to 20; this passed on Sunday. On Monday,
the India Meteorological Department (IMD) extended the onset window to ‘next
three to four days.'
CONDITIONS
EVOLVING
The IMD
said conditions are becoming favourable for advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea
and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during next 3-4 days.
The
European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts suggested that the winds might start
to pick up speed by Tuesday ahead of the onset of the Bay branch of monsoon.
This,
however, may not necessarily mean that the onset of the Arabian Sea branch
would be delayed by as many days.
In the
normal course, the monsoon would take a fortnight or so from here to make it to
the Kerala coast for precipitating the onset over mainland.
In between,
the seasonal weather phenomenon bursts forth over Sri Lanka, just to the south
of the peninsular tip. From here, it takes five more days to hit Kerala.
ONSET
CONDITIONS
Varying
models have pointed to the unfavourable upper-level conditions around the
southern peninsula that could inhibit a timely onset.
But others
have suggested that this may not take too long, and that the onset could happen
well within the first week of June. The IMD satellite pictures showed
convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Kerala, north, central and
south-east Bay of Bengal, Comorin area and south-east Arabian Sea.
An outlook
for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers would occur at a few
places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and increase thereafter.
HEAT WAVE
An extended
outlook valid until Saturday said that rain or thundershowers would expand
coverage to many places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Significantly,
this would also be the time when the plains of north-west India would likely
witness delayed development of heat wave conditions.
In fact,
model predictions said north-west and adjoining central India getting sizzling
hot as the first wave of monsoon rains break out over the southern peninsula.
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